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Analyst Says Scottish IndyRef Re-Run Blocked by BoJo Could be Risky for SNP_我的网站

A |     Another Scottish independence referendum could be risky for the regional government in Edinburgh, an academic and analyst has said.,Embattled British Prime Minister Boris Johnson wrote to Nicola Sturgeon, leader of the Scottish National Party (SNP) and first minister in the devolved administration, on Wednesday evening to deny her latest demand for a re-run of the 2014 plebiscite.,"As our country faces unprecedented challenges at home and abroad, I cannot agree that now is the time to return to a question, which was clearly answered by the people of Scotland in 2014," Johnson wrote.,Sturgeon announced in June that Scotland's Lord Advocate Dorothy Bain — whose cabinet post combines the powers of the Westminster government's attorney general and the director of public prosecutions — would ask the Supreme Court to rule on the legality of holding another vote without necessary approval from the Westminster Parliament.,The nationalist leader claimed Scots would vote to separate from England — where many of them work — out of a desire to reverse Brexit and opposition to 12 years of government by the Conservative Party, which holds few Parliamentary seats in Scotland.,Dr Roslyn Fuller, director of the non-profit think tank Solonian Democracy Institute and the author of the book Beasts and Gods: How Democracy Changed Its Meaning and Lost Its Purpose told Sputnik that while pushing for a repeat referendum was central to the SNP's identity, it was also a dangerous gamble.,She said SNP's planned vote next year would only be "advisory" and "non-binding", but that it also took the party back to its basic reason for being.,"I think the SNP has the same challenges that many other independence parties like Sinn Fein or the Bloc Quebecois have — they succeed in attaining power in their own region which forces them to go from a single-issue party (independence) to develop a multitude of other policies that voters then judge them on," the academic said.,"They end up working within the system they intended to break away from and this can dilute their message," Fuller added. "Sturgeon and the SNP generally need to be seen to be continuing to pursue independence to satisfy a certain portion of their voters, and this is a way to achieve that".,Running the plebiscite — with legal sanction — and winning would give the SNP a boost going in to the next general election, due by the end of January 2025 but potentially much sooner, the analyst believes.,Even if the vote was blocked, Sturgeon has already stated that she would consider the next general election a de-facto referendum on independence, she points out. "So again, it would serve to drive out the vote for the SNP and try to focus attention on this one issue (independence) that differentiates them from the other major parties.","The only really risky situation for her would be if the Court did greenlight such an advisory referendum and it failed at the polls," Fuller stressed.,The 'Yes' campaign was leading in the polls in the run-up to the 2014 referendum, but ultimately the 10 per cent of voters declaring themselves undecided went overwhelmingly to the 'No' camp. Scotland voted by 55 per cent to 45 to remain part of the UK.,The key unknown factor, according to Fuller, is who succeeds Johnson as next Tory leader an PM.,"My personal feeling is that we'll be seeing a turn of the Tories back to more establishment politics with likely quite different policies," she says. "I think they ran Johnson as a counter to Corbyn, but that job is done now that the Labour party has turned back to its own centre.",Fuller argues that such a major change of political direction would be significant enough that a snap general election should be called to seek a new mandate to govern. She says the SNP's performance at the polls would be crucial to their referendum bid.,Prof: Scottish Independence Requires Serious Debate Amid Soaring Cost of Living in UK16 June, 12:47 GMT,Legal Avenues,The think-tank director believes Sturgeon's appeal to the Supreme Court shows the SNP is anxious keep its latest bid for a referendum on firm legal ground, since its declared pretext for the vote is so Scotland can re-apply for membership of the European Union (EU). But she cautioned that would open "a whole can of worms.","Firstly, it clouds the entire idea of independence. It Scotland were to re-join the EU, which is heading towards getting rid of unanimity voting, the average Scot would have significantly less power than they do if they remain in the UK," she says.,"It is not 'independence' in any actual meaning of the word," Fuller stressed. "How do you run an 'independence' referendum on the understanding that if you win, you are going to join a larger, even less democratic, entity?",But more importantly, an unsanctioned 'indyref' would put the SNP in the same bracket as the coalition of Catalan nationalist parties who held an unofficial plebiscite in 2017, in which only supporters of independence bothered to vote. The political organisers found themselves arrested and charged or, in the case of then-regional president Carles Puigdemont, fleeing abroad as a fugitive.,"There are countries in the EU, like Spain, that are very much against separatist referendums, so getting some kind of legal blessing for this is probably necessary to retain their support," Fuller says.。    Danielle 编译          据Newshub报道，每年的怀唐伊日（Waitangi Day），怀唐伊条约签署地都要举行黎明仪式纪念活动。今年是《怀唐伊条约》签署184周年。         Advertise with us          今天（2月6日）凌晨，黎明的太阳升起时，成千上万的人聚集在签署地，参加总督Cindy Kiro主持的仪式。         昨天下午，政府总理、副总理等在怀唐伊条约签署地进行演讲，受到了人群的起哄和奚落。         今天的黎明仪式明显要安静的多。一些新西兰最高级别的领导人都出席了仪式，总理Christopher Luxon、工党党魁Chris Hipkins，以及其他部长和议员在场。         主教Te Kito Pikaahu主持了开场仪式，然后，怀唐伊国民信托委员会主席Pita Tipene对人群表示欢迎。         上午的活动包括唱歌和祈祷，以及政治家和毛利领导人在内的政要演讲。         Luxon宣读了《圣经》《哥林多前书》12:12-27，其中他谈到了团结，是这样写的：“就如身子是一个，却有许多肢体。

B | 而且肢体虽多，仍是一个身子。若一个肢体受苦，所有的肢体就一同受苦。若一个肢体得荣耀，所有的肢体就一同快乐。”          行动党党魁David Seymour演讲时，除了人群中的小声议论外，没有出现昨天那样喧闹的情况。         最后，主持人、演员和备受尊敬的长者Waihoroi Shortland结束了仪式。

C |          相关阅读：          怀唐伊日天气：新西兰大部阳光普照，某些地区将达35度          离怀唐伊日还有两周，今年预计将是30多年来条约签署地人数最多的一次          注：本文为编译/原创，欢迎转发分享；但严禁复制等未经授权的非法使用。

D | 违反上述声明者，本网将追究其相关法律责任。使用授权请联系[email protected]。         chineseherald.co.nz All Rights Reserved 版权所有          (责编：丹妮)          来源 -          相关内容                特斯拉车主在新西兰出事了！法院判决：特斯拉赢了……           今天上午奥克兰发生涉枪事件，一男子被逮捕           交通机构喊话政府：资金缺口太大，原定计划很难实现           自驾出游注意！北岛几处施工路段将长时间关闭，请提前计划路线           两名男子大白天持械抢劫奥克兰酒铺，抡起斧头砍店员           怀唐伊日天气：新西兰大部阳光普照，某些地区将达35度           新西兰一高中近40名教职工感染 新冠蔓延仍不可掉以轻心           新西兰真相大曝光！移民太多吃不消！大地震随时会爆发……。

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